Exit Polls once again failed to gauge the pulse of the voters. Exit Polls predicted Congress winning Haryana and Hung in Jammu & Kashmir but BJP retained Haryana while Congress and National Congress won J&K comfortably.
Also Read – KTR’s 1000 Acres Farmhouse Challenge!
This is not the first time Exit Polls went wrong. Exit Polls got it wrong in Chhattisgarh and Parliament elections as well.
Even in the Andhra Pradesh elections recently, some of the popular agencies got it wrong.
Also Read – Nara Lokesh With People, 50 Days Of Praja Darbar!
Indian electorate is becoming increasingly difficult to predict. In AP, YSRCP won 151 seats in 2019 and was reduced to just eleven in the next five years.
It needs a sensational swing to witness such a result but then, the pollsters who operate locally could not even see that.
Also Read – Hyderabad Gets Asia’s 2nd Google Safety Centre
Even the agencies that predicted TDP+ winning Andhra Pradesh did not see this wild swing.
And then, Caste Polarization is increasing so much that Survey Agencies can not gauge it properly. Jats Vs Non-Jats is a crucial factor in Haryana Results. Pollsters estimated anti-incumbency to be better than this caste polarization and got it completely wrong.
On top of everything, India is a huge country with a massive population. The population is divided on the lines of economic disparities, caste, class, creed, religion, etc. To take a sizeable number of samples with such disparities has become very difficult and costly.
Axis My India, one of the most-trusted pollsters in the country got it wrong in the recent Parliament elections exactly for this reason.
In fact, there are very few agencies that are into serious Psephology. Rest gives numbers only based on the mood and media noise. Even the serious ones are handicapped due to the various factors discussed above.
