This year’s H1B caps levels surprised many—but not in the manner one would assume. The overall number of applications dropped way below last year, and that is no mistake.
From 470,000+ eligible registrations last year to a mere just under 344,000 this year—this is a sharp 27% fall. That’s the lowest in years, considering the 2024 mess where the system was overwhelmed with nearly 800,000 applications.
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Fewer applicants, and fewer still had multiple registrations filed on their behalf. Only 7,800 were reported as having more than one eligible registration—last year, that figure stood at 47,000+.
The system only received a single application per person on average, contrary to previous years where multiple firms would submit an application for the same person. That’s a very clear indication of changes.
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Now to the million-dollar question—will there be a second lottery?
With over 120,000 selected in round one and the overall registration number lower, there may not be a second round. But it’s USCIS, and if people don’t submit or bail out, there is still going to be juggling around.
So why the sudden drop this year?
New rules and tighter scrutiny around multiple filings scared off most consultancies who used to game the system. The crackdown on fraud—this time real and overt—worked.
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The word is out that H1B isn’t the golden ticket it was. With layoffs, green card backlogs, and visa purgatory, talent is having second thoughts about entering a system that seems to be in disarray.
This shift in statistics says something deeper. Individuals aren’t just skipping the lottery—they’re rethinking the American dream.
There is also a stealthy reshaping. The H1B program is no longer running on volume but on intent. The system now has a filtered pool—those who actually want in, not just those playing the game.
What used to be a game of “who applies more” is slowly becoming “who applies right.” That change, while subtle, is strong—and long overdue.
