Why Chandrababu Does Not Fear By-Elections?

It has been one and a half years since Chandrababu Naidu took office. Yet, the YSR Congress is already speaking about anti-incumbency. Every time Jagan goes out, the party mobilises huge crowds to show that people are unhappy with his leadership.

If this were true, Chandrababu Naidu should be worried about early elections. However, that doesn’t seem to be the case. While the government is making arrangements for local body elections, there’s also strong talk about disqualifying some YSR Congress MLAs, including Jagan Mohan Reddy.

If disqualifications happen, by-elections would need to be held in all eleven affected constituencies. Speaker Ayyannapatrudu and Deputy Speaker Raghu Rama Krishna Raju have repeatedly mentioned this issue in recent public events.

The Speaker even discussed it during the National Women’s Empowerment Conference. In the same context, the Deputy Speaker again pointed out Jagan’s continued absence from Assembly sessions and the possibility of disqualification.

He explained that any member who skips 60 consecutive days of Assembly or Parliament meetings without approved leave can be disqualified. This is clearly mentioned in Article 190(4) of the Constitution. Rule 187(2) of the AP Assembly’s Rules of Procedure also supports this.

These statements make it evident that the government is serious about initiating disqualification, which would automatically trigger by-elections. Intelligence reports on public sentiment seem to suggest that Chandrababu Naidu is confident of retaining these seats.

That confidence also suggests that Jagan Mohan Reddy may be overestimating his popularity, just like he did during the 2024 elections. Losing even a few seats in the by-elections could damage the YSR Congress’s public image further.

Meanwhile, the government must also check on some YSR Congress MLAs who sign the attendance register but skip the Assembly sessions. The Speaker should clarify whether such MLAs are marked present or absent.

If all eleven constituencies head into by-elections, Andhra Pradesh politics could see a very interesting shift in dynamics.