Quarantine Will Only Delay Corona Epidemic: ICMR

India with a population of 1.3 Billion has announced Lockdown for three weeks to mitigate the Coronavirus scare. The country is already inching towards 550 cases. Indian Council for Medical Research (ICMR), however, says the Quarantine will not prevent the epidemic but will only delay the spread.

Quarantining 50% of the symptomatic cases within three days of developing symptoms would reduce the cumulative incidence by 62% and the peak prevalence by 89%. When the spread is delayed, we would get more time till the cure is found and thereby the casualties will be reduced.

Regarding the medical readiness of the country, experts say that in the worst-case scenario, 26% of the population will get infected and one in the 450 infected individuals would die. 5% of the total infected patients would require intensive care unit and half of those admitted will require mechanical ventilation.

The Report by ICMR says it is difficult at this stage to predict the number of beds required or ventilators necessary. The other day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that the Central Government had allocated 15000 Crore for health infrastructure like beds, ventilators, paramedical training, etc.