Trump’s New Proposal Out: End of H-1B Lottery?

Trump is intensifying his crackdown on H-1B visas as the administration released a new proposal on Tuesday. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) plans to scrap the traditional H-1B lottery, which currently gives all applicants an equal chance.

Wage and Skill-Based Entries

Under the proposal, entries in the lottery would depend on an applicant’s wage and skill level. The Department of Labor (DOL) determines these levels using the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) survey. Higher skill and wages will increase an applicant’s chances of selection.

Skill Levels Explained

Workers are divided into four levels: Level I (Entry-level) gets 1 entry, Level II (Qualified) 2 entries, Level III (Experienced) 3 entries, and Level IV (Fully Competent) 4 entries. Top earners could nearly double their chances, while junior workers may struggle to secure a visa.

Impact on Indian IT Firms

This change could hit Indian IT firms hard, as they rely heavily on mid-level coders and fresh graduates. Combined with the recent $100,000 one-time fee for new H-1B petitions, the administration is signalling that cheap foreign labour is unwelcome.

Legal Concerns

Immigration experts argue that both the fee hike and the proposed lottery changes may face legal challenges. They point out that these rules may conflict with the Immigration Nationality Act (INA) and cannot be altered solely by presidential order.

The H-1B lottery is not yet dead, but the new proposal has placed it on life support. Indian professionals and students may feel the strongest impact as Trump pushes these restrictive measures.