The H1B lottery time of year is here again, and if you’re going for it this time, you must be thinking about the odds. Having observed the trends over the last two years and hearing from a lot of people who are in the same position, here’s what’s coming your way.
First, the number of applications is going to be far less than previously. In 2022, there were more than 700,000 applications; in 2023, that fell to approximately 420,000. With the fee increase to $210, the days of large numbers of applications from consultancies appear to be behind us.
A large portion of applications from India also may not go into the lottery this year. Paying INR 850 and shelling out INR 170,000 are two completely different things, and this hike will cause many to think twice. So, a huge decline in applications from India is anticipated.
American firms are not also filing H1Bs for all OPT applicants that they have. With growing resentment against the visa scheme, many large firms are likely to reduce filings. In comparison with last year, the number of applications from leading tech companies is set to go down.
Then there’s Trump. His comeback entails more stringent examination, greater RFE rates, and increased denials. A second lottery is virtually a certainty this year, as it was last year.
In earlier years, the deadline for filing was pushed back due to an eleventh-hour rush of applicants. That did not occur this time, which indicates fewer applications in total. This is a pleminary indication that the numbers could be lower than last year.
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