The TDP lead alliance with JSP and BJP looks set to take control of Andhra Pradesh from Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSRCP, according to an India Today-Axis My India exit poll.
The poll predicts the NDA, which includes the BJP, TDP, and JSP, might win 98 to 120 of the 175 Assembly seats. If this holds true, it will be a big comeback for TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu and a huge blow to Jagan Mohan Reddy.
Several factors contributed to this shift. What went so drastically wrong for YS Jagan that his party is struggling to cross 50-60 seats after scoring 150+ seats in 2019?
First, Andhra Pradesh’s financial issues worsened under Jagan, with the state facing a huge debt of Rs 13.5 lakh crore due to his welfare schemes, “navaratnalu.” These schemes, though popular before, couldn’t address bigger issues like poor infrastructure, unreliable power, lack of drinking water, high electricity bills, and rising prices. Voters are also unhappy with unfulfilled job promises and high unemployment.
Reddy’s policies towards backward classes drew criticism too. His benefits for these classes and the 4% reservation for Muslims upset the Kapu community, leading to claims of “minority appeasement.”
Reddy’s choice of poll candidates also backfired. Anticipating anti-incumbency, he replaced many sitting MLAs and MPs, causing dissatisfaction and prompting defections to rival parties, including six MPs in recent months.
Chandrababu Naidu’s arrest in September 2023 over a scam accusation brought CBN significant sympathy and boosted his support. His son, Nara Lokesh, also rallied support with his foot march.
The NDA alliance’s success also hinged on strategic alliances and the star power of Pawan Kalyan from JSP, who energized the campaign and helped consolidate votes. Kalyan’s support during Naidu’s imprisonment and the BJP’s involvement in securing Kamma-Kapu votes were also crucial for the NDA’s potential victory.
