The new H-1B visa lottery rules created major concern among lower wage-level applicants. Many feared the weighted selection system would strongly favour higher-paid workers in the FY 2027 lottery.
While official figures are still awaited, early unofficial data now show an interesting trend. Initial reports do not indicate the dramatic wage-level advantage that many applicants had expected.
A visa tracker platform called H1BPulse recently shared statistics based on around 5,500 self-reported lottery submissions this year.
The data remain unofficial and limited in scope. However, the early sample has drawn attention because it suggests a more balanced result than many predicted.
According to the reports, the overall selection rate across 5,488 submissions stood at around 61 percent. That number has become a major talking point among applicants.
Many were surprised by how close the wage-level figures appeared. Level 1 workers reportedly had a 64 percent selection rate, compared with 58 percent for Level 2 applicants.
Level 3 workers reportedly recorded a 61 percent selection rate, while Level 4 applicants stood at 58 percent. The narrow gap has raised fresh questions.
Some observers now believe fears over wage-level odds may have been overstated, at least in this early sample. Others say applicant volume could explain the pattern.
Many H-1B applicants are believed to come from lower wage levels. Higher wage categories may have better odds but fewer applicants than entry-level or associate workers.
Education-based data also appeared relatively even. Master’s degree holders reportedly had a 60 percent selection rate, while bachelor’s degree holders were at 62 percent.
Other education categories reportedly showed a 67 percent selection rate. These numbers have added more debate over how the new system may be working.
Among law firms with at least 50 reported cases, Fragomen showed a 47 percent selection rate. BAL stood at 55 percent.
Baker McKenzie reportedly showed a 66 percent selection rate. However, sample bias may have influenced these results.
This is not official USCIS data. The figures come from voluntary self-reporting, which may favour people more willing to share their outcomes.
Even 5,500 cases represent only a small part of the total H-1B applicant pool. Because of that, the data should be viewed carefully.
The figures do not prove all wage levels are treated equally. Still, they offer an early look at the FY 2027 lottery and keep discussion alive until official numbers are released.
