Telangana elections are done and dusted. All eyes are on Andhra Pradesh which is likely to go for elections in the next three months. Until now, there is no credible survey about Andhra Pradesh.
A few agencies have released their findings. Irrespective of what they said, all these surveys are unlikely to be accurate.
Firstly, all the surveys are recording Janasena and TDP separately. In Politics, alliances are very important. They can have a positive or negative impact on the vote bank.
What is the impact of Janasena on TDP?
Nobody can really say that now. Vote Transfer is very important to decide how they will fare together.
Janasena supporters are divided about the alliance. The seat-sharing will decide if Janasena’s votes will be transferred fully to TDP.
Some of them are harboring unreasonable demands like 50 seats and even power-sharing.
But then, Janasena is not prepared to contest for more seats. If the YSR Congress runs over Janasena, the actual purpose will be defeated.
So, the seat-sharing will be an important component in the outcome. No survey has taken it into account so far and they can not until the seat-sharing is announced officially.
Whether or not, BJP will join the alliance is another factor to be counted. The BJP will decide the voting pattern of the SC and Minority Voters.
In the case of the YSR Congress, the Chief Minister is changing candidates left and right. There are rumors that at least 82 candidates will be changed.
If these candidates opt to work against the YSR Congress, that will impact the results as well.
In short, Andhra Pradesh’s political turf is very complicated to assess. Surveys coming this early will find it even more difficult.
