The H-1B visa program is a hot topic in 2023, with the emergence of a third lottery. The situation has been shaped by the actions of the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), which has already conducted two selection rounds for fiscal year 2024.
In the first round, a whopping 110,791 registrations were selected, exceeding the annual cap of 85,000. This prompted a second round where 77,600 additional registrations were chosen due to the expectation that the first round’s actual filings would be lower than initially estimated, mainly because of duplicate entries.
The likelihood of a third round can be assessed through a mathematical perspective. Assuming a consistent 40% filing rate, there appears to be a gap of 9,640 slots to reach the 85,000 quota, making a third round plausible. This scenario wouldn’t be unprecedented, as a third round was held in 2022 when insufficient selected applicants filed their petitions.
However, this year’s filing rate is complicated by an unusually high number of multiple filings and USCIS’s crackdown on such entries. The fear of USCIS scrutiny has led to many Indian applicants hesitating to file their H-1B petitions.
Public sentiments and predictions regarding a third lottery are mixed. Some believe that if there’s a significant discrepancy between approved petitions and the annual cap, a third round might be considered.
While a third round of the H1B lottery seems likely based on numbers and trends, USCIS is not obligated to fill the entire 85,000 quota. The actual number of H1B recipients varies annually, and the public can lodge complaints if a significant discrepancy occurs, although this hasn’t happened in the past.
Efforts to address multiple lotteries include redefining the 85,000 quota, implementing an auction system, and changing the fee schedule. These measures aim to ensure that the H-1B program serves its intended purpose while preventing overuse and maintaining salary levels.
