How do you gauge an election? How do you know which way an election is going? More than the surveys and studies, the movement of Jumping Japangs is a clear indication of the wave in an election. This is because the leaders often tend to move towards green pastures.
To explain it, we will see the last two elections. In 2014, we saw a mass exodus of leaders particularly from Congress to TDP. Even big and influential leaders like the JC family, the Kotla family, and many others have joined TDP.
Even though YSR Congress swept the by-elections before the General Election. The defectors sensed the TDP wave just before the election.
In 2019, it is the other way. Someone like Vemireddy Prabhakar Reddy left TDP just before the last day of nominations. In the last 15 days or so before the elections, we used to see at least one joining per day into the YSR Congress indicating the trend.
If that is an indication, the wave is with TDP in this election. If we see the joinings in both the parties. Except for Kesineni Nani, there is no prominent joining YSR Congress. The party is after spent forces like Jogaiah’s son and Mudragada hoping some magic would happen.
Meanwhile, TDP got some leaders like MPs – Sanjeev Kumar & Lavu Sri Krishna Devarayulu, Myalavaram MLA Vasantha Krishna Prasad, a sitting Minister Gummanuru Jayaram, a political heavyweight like Vemireddy Prabhakar Reddy, and others.
Even a hardcore YSR Bhakt like Kotamreddy Sridhar Reddy left YSR Congress to join TDP.
Also, those denied tickets in TDP are not moving to YSR Congress even though the Cycle party announced candidates in 99 seats and left 24 seats to Janasena.
As of now, if the defections are any indication, TDP looks much ahead.
