Telangana has become a different terrain after the state bifurcation. BRS (the then TRS) tried to be very nice to the Andhra Settlers and won their trust to some extent.
In the first election after the state bifurcation, the GHMC area which has a huge settler population gave its mandate to the TDP. Of the fifteen seats, TDP won in that election, most are in the GHMC area. TDP’s tally (15) was so close to the tally of the principal opposition, Congress (21).
But the defections and Telugu Desam Party becoming irrelevant in Telangana slowly moved the settlers. When TDP stopped interfering in Telangana and when BRS stopped talking about TDP, slowly the settlers came to terms with the fact that Telangana politics are different.
They overwhelmingly voted in favor of 2018. But then, things are quickly changing after Chandrababu Naidu’s arrest.
We have seen many protests in Hyderabad against Chandrababu’s arrest.
Of course, these protests are not connected to politics. But the way, the BRS Government tried to trouble the protestors and the way, KTR spoke very arrogantly about Chandrababu Naidu changed the way how settlers look at BRS.
They were happy with BRS as long as they thought they were not interfering in their sentiments or politics back home but everything changed now.
For the first time after Bifurcation, Settlers got a reason to hate the BRS.
More than the Police restrictions on the protests, KTR’s comments and the way he insulted Chandrababu Naidu indirectly irked them the most.
For the first time, Chances are bright the Settlers will polarize against the BRS. The only question is if Congress will be able to cash it.
What about the Reddy Community Settlers? A major chunk of these people are likely to support Congress which projects itself as a Reddy party in Telangana. That is as such for a long time. A small portion who are YSR Congress sympathizers may vote BRS. But the Net loss in this issue is very high for BRS just because of mishandling the issue.
Even Janasena’s Pawan Kalyan supporters on social media are unhappy because KCR and KTR’s friendship with Jagan is evident, and JSP’s alliance with TDP will further erode this segment of settler votes.
GHMC area with 24 Assembly constituencies holds the key to Telangana political space. It accounts for 20 percent of the 119 seats in Telangana. The voters in GHMC comprise 26 percent of the total electorate in the new state. The settlers form 70% of the total voters in the region and they decide the fate of political parties in this area.
KTR instead should have allowed these protests. There would have been hungama for a few days and everything would have settled down. But the mishandling complicated things.