The Elections in Andhra Pradesh are going to be Psephologists‘ Nightmare. It is very difficult to predict the outcome of this election thanks to very complex factors involved.
But then, Coastal Andhra Pradesh especially the districts excepting Uttarandhra is likely to be the deciding factor in this election.
Uttarandhra because of Vizianagaram favouring YSR Congress is going to go 50-50 or 60-40 this time. Rayalaseema is likely to give a split mandate as well because of TDP regaining its hold in Anantapur. Except for Kadapa, remaining two districts are likely to give a split mandate.
The real winner is decided only in districts of Vizag – Godavari – Nellore, most Psephologists opine this time. The alliance is likely to get a sensational one-sided mandate in these places.
The Kamma and the Kapu Communities are working with sheer determination like never before in the last three decades. Both communities are upset about YSR Congress targeting them and are going all out for this election.
As a result, we may witness one-sided results and majorities in many seats are going to be scary. Jagan always tried to pull down the Kamma community and that has gone to unimaginable levels in the last five years.
Kammas were never these polarized. They were always in all parties from Communists to Congress and in TDP. This time, they are determined to make TDP win.
Kapu Community is also snubbed with the Government. They are upset with the way Jagan used Kapu leaders to abuse and undermine Pawan Kalyan. Also the community in some pockets with the way Jagan gave more importance to BCs.
Both the communities are working hard to make their presence felt in this election. Vysya Community is also very agitated with this Government as their businesses suffered a lot due to the bad policies.
Kshatriya Community is also in Favor of the alliance especially with the way Jagan mishandled Raghu Rama Krishna Raju.
TDP is expecting that BCs have come back to them after overwhelming support to Jagan in 2019.
In a way, 2024 is going to be the most polarized Elections in recent times.
